News
Editor's note: The following is an excerpt from the Vail Homeowners Association monthly report in February. We plan to publish weekly excerpts from the association, which keeps a close eye on economic and political trends in and outside of the town.
Forecasts by several Wall Street analysts continue to conclude that the pace of economic recovery could be slow and drawn out (Pimco/Gross).
Nationally, economic growth will be subdued, between 2.7 percent and 5 percent of GDP with those who are more pessimistic predicting a dismal 1.5 percent (Bloomberg/Roubini).
Credit availability has improved, but will continue to be restrained (Blackwell/Wein).
There could be a modest improvement in jobs with the unemployment rate dropping between 8 percent and 9 percent (U.S.>Economic Brief).
However, job growth will remain tepid even if industrial production increases in the short-term (Barron's Roundtable).
Consumer spending will continue to be sluggish as debt reduction (balance sheet recession/deleveraging) remains a priority for families and businesses (Barron's/Koo).
Some are saying that a second federal stimulus package will be required to jumpstart a moribund construction industry. Critics say that increasing the federal debt, already 10 percent to 11 percent of GDP, would be politically untenable.
And still others believe that if the federal government retreats prematurely from their emergency financial measures, it could cause another recession.
Projections for a 10 percent to 20 percent increase in equity markets is tempered with the prospect of a similar-sized downward correction if the value of the dollar is deflated by federal policy.
Some believe that most markets, especially those with a lack of excessive indebtedness, will outperform the United States.
Vail forecast: The 2010 forecast for Vail, say economic advisers to the association, when viewed within this broader context will be a year of up-and-down disappointment for the local tourism and development economy. By the time the year closes out, the community will not be in a much different position than it is currently.
Going global: There are those who see an opportunity for Vail to take advantage of developing its access to emerging global tourism markets for destination guests.
In Aspen, the ski company has already taken the initiative through a marketing firm experienced in global branding.
Vail Resorts may have similar intentions, but the Vail community has not yet defined such a mission or embraced a coordinated strategy to underwrite such an effort.
Forecasts by several Wall Street analysts continue to conclude that the pace of economic recovery could be slow and drawn out (Pimco/Gross).
Nationally, economic growth will be subdued, between 2.7 percent and 5 percent of GDP with those who are more pessimistic predicting a dismal 1.5 percent (Bloomberg/Roubini).
Credit availability has improved, but will continue to be restrained (Blackwell/Wein).
There could be a modest improvement in jobs with the unemployment rate dropping between 8 percent and 9 percent (U.S.>Economic Brief).
However, job growth will remain tepid even if industrial production increases in the short-term (Barron's Roundtable).
Consumer spending will continue to be sluggish as debt reduction (balance sheet recession/deleveraging) remains a priority for families and businesses (Barron's/Koo).
Some are saying that a second federal stimulus package will be required to jumpstart a moribund construction industry. Critics say that increasing the federal debt, already 10 percent to 11 percent of GDP, would be politically untenable.
And still others believe that if the federal government retreats prematurely from their emergency financial measures, it could cause another recession.
Projections for a 10 percent to 20 percent increase in equity markets is tempered with the prospect of a similar-sized downward correction if the value of the dollar is deflated by federal policy.
Some believe that most markets, especially those with a lack of excessive indebtedness, will outperform the United States.
Vail forecast: The 2010 forecast for Vail, say economic advisers to the association, when viewed within this broader context will be a year of up-and-down disappointment for the local tourism and development economy. By the time the year closes out, the community will not be in a much different position than it is currently.
Going global: There are those who see an opportunity for Vail to take advantage of developing its access to emerging global tourism markets for destination guests.
In Aspen, the ski company has already taken the initiative through a marketing firm experienced in global branding.
Vail Resorts may have similar intentions, but the Vail community has not yet defined such a mission or embraced a coordinated strategy to underwrite such an effort.
