EAGLE COUNTY, Colorado — Motorists everywhere are paying more at the pump. But will another round of gas prices near or above $4 per gallon short-circuit the valley tourism industry's climb out of the national economic slump?

It's hard to tell, but local and regional tourism-watchers think the valley might actually see some benefits from higher fuel prices.

The Mountain Travel Research Program tracks lodging and travel data for mountain resorts. Company co-owner Ralf Garrison said the “real and perceived shock value of prices needs to be taken seriously.”

But, Garrison said, there could be good news in the bad news of higher prices. One piece of good news is that it's still relatively cheaper to drive than fly, especially as prices rise. If an airline ticket is $50 more for a one-way fare, that's an extra $400 for a family of four for a round trip just about anywhere.

On the other hand, that family will use 25 gallons of gas in their 20-miles-per-gallon minivan on a 500-mile road trip. That family will spend an extra $25 on fuel when the price of gas goes from $3 to $4 per gallon, or just $6.25 per passenger.

“The real costs for a driving vacation are nominal,” Garrison said.

That means people on the Front Range may end up driving to the mountains for a vacation than flying to another destination, especially in the summer.

The winter's a little different.

“Skiing is a passion,” Vail Valley Partnership Executive Director Chris Romer said. “So is travel. But at this point of the season, most people have pre-paid for their trips.”

For right now, Romer guessed that rising fuel prices would have a “minimal” effect on travel.

In 2008, the shock value of gas shooting past $4 per gallon was something new for American drivers. That year, Americans drove less than the year before for the first time since World War II.

Now, though, Garrison believes people will be more sanguine about higher prices. A lot of the factors present in 2008 aren't there any more — particularly a deteriorating national economy that finally hit the mountains hard with the financial meltdown in September of that year. And, frankly, we've been there and done that.

But Rob LeVine, general manager of The Antlers Lodge in Vail, is one of the people taking a hard look at rising prices.

“It's sure not going to help us,” LeVine said. “And if gas starts to get to $4 or higher, some people are going to cut back.”

But how expensive is gas going to get? It's hard to tell, of course. Political unrest in Libya sent oil prices up, but last week's massive earthquake in Japan pushed prices back down again. Another natural disaster or a political explosion in Saudi Arabia could throw the world's oil markets into another tizzy, and quickly.

But at the moment, industry types don't think we'll see the oil markets behave as they did in 2008, when there was seemingly no ceiling to oil's market price.

Wave Dreher, spokeswoman for AAA of Colorado, was at an Oil Price Information Service meeting last week. She said the experts there predicted the nationwide average for a gallon of gas price would top out — probably sometime around Memorial Day —somewhere between $3.50 and $3.75 per gallon (local markets can, and often are, much different, of course).

Dreher said at the moment, national demand is steady — it hasn't risen much since the 2008 drop — and supplies are plentiful.

“We're still optimistic about tourism travel this summer,” Dreher said.

But there still could be changes in the way people travel.

“Passholders have already invested in their season pass,” Romer wrote in an e-mail. “Gas prices will likely just encourage them to carpool and maybe spend the night to avoid filling the gas tank. Attendance at all our great spring events (Vail Film Festival, Spring Back to Vail, etc) could actually benefit.”

Business Editor Scott N. Miller can be reached at 970-748-2930 or smiller@vaildaily.com.