Brace yourselves for an interest rate increase |

Brace yourselves for an interest rate increase

Ken Armstrong, Shane Fleury and Steve Shanley
The Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company — Vail Valley

If there were still any doubt about whether the Federal Reserve is going to raise its rate when it meets later this month — and the odds were already better than 90 percent — they evaporated with Friday’s jobs report.

The report showed that the unemployment rate had fallen to 4.6 percent, a nine-year low, while the economy added 178,000 jobs. Even so, the post-election stock market surge finally slowed as the S&P 500 was down for the week for the first time since Donald Trump was elected president, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.1 percent gain. The falling price of Treasury’s also stabilized somewhat, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury pulled back from 2.45 percent on Thursday, its highest point since July 2015, to close the week at 2.39 percent.

Despite the fact that the unemployment rate fell from 4.9 percent to 4.6 percent, the latest report had some less positive news as hourly earnings were off 0.1 percent from October and were up 2,5 percent over the past year compared to 2.8 percent in October. The labor force participation rate ticked down to 62.7 percent from October’s 62.8 percent.

GDP hits two-year high

The government’s second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was up from the first reading of 2.9 percent to 3.2 percent, its fastest pace in two years. This is mainly because of stronger consumer spending, which was revised from 2.1 percent to 2.8 percent. Growth was only 0.8 percent in the first quarter and 1.4 percent in the second; it’s expected to come in at around 2 percent for the last three months of 2016.

Oil’s latest rebound

The price of oil has struggled to get back to, and stay over, the $50-a-barrel mark, mainly because of skepticism about the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) ability to get its squabbling members to agree on a production cap. Early last week United States crude and Brent fell to $45.49 and $46.38, respectively. But on Wednesday, OPEC announced that it would cut daily production 4.5 percent or 1.2 million barrels for six months beginning in January, its first reduction in eight years. The impact of the deal is contingent on the cooperation of non-OPEC members such as Russia; no sure thing. Even so, the price of oil soared nearly 9 percent on Wednesday on the news and for the week U.S. crude rose 12 percent, its best weekly showing since 2009, to $51.68, while Brent closed at $54.56.

Italy’s referendum, Austria’s election, and Hollande’s decision

Italians went to the polls on Sunday and rejected a referendum to overhaul and streamline their political system, adding yet another variable to the eurozone’s post-Brexit uncertainty. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said he would resign as a result of the vote, and the rising Five Star Movement may ride the momentum to a referendum of its own on leaving the European Union (EU). Also, Austrians voted for a new president yesterday. Though it’s a largely ceremonial post, the vote was also seen as a barometer of whether or not EU-skeptical parties were in the ascendant, and in this case the far-right candidate was defeated. Earlier last week, another European leader, France’s President François Hollande, said he wouldn’t seek reelection in 2017, ostensibly to protect the Socialist Party, but more probably because the latest polls showed that his approval rating was in the single digits.

Better news for the eurozone

With the European Central Bank set to meet this week, there was some good news for a change as the stubbornly low rate of inflation rose to 0.6 percent in November from a year earlier and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 9.8 percent, its lowest level since July 2009.

Obamacare’s fate, a new Treasury Secretary, “too big to fail”

Healthcare stocks rose last week after Trump nominated Representative Tom Price (R, Georgia), an adamant opponent of the Affordable Care Act, to be secretary of Health and Human Services. The next president also nominated Steven Mnuchin, his campaign finance chairman, to be treasury secretary. On Saturday, William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, pushed back against Trump’s pledge to undo parts of the Dodd Frank Act, saying the work to police the “too-big-to-fail” banks that triggered the Great Recession was an “absolutely must” to make the financial system “less prone to panics.”

All-time high for auto sales?

Autoweek reported that vehicle sales rose 3.6 percent in November from a year earlier to 1.378 million, breaking the previous November high of 1.328 million in 2001 and giving the industry a chance to surpass last year’s record of 17.47 million vehicles sold. In other news, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its Manufacturing Index increased to 53.2 percent in November from 51.9 percent in October. The Fed’s latest Beige Book report indicated that most of America is enjoying economic growth ranging from “modest” to “moderate.” Consumer spending was up 0.3 percent in October from the month before and the personal consumption expenditures deflator climbed 0.2 percent in October and 1.4 percent over the past year. October’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, excluding food and energy, improved 0.1 percent month over month and 1.7 percent year over year. Personal income ticked up 0.6 percent in October from September, while the savings rate came in at 6 percent. Construction spending rose 0.5 percent in October from the month before, and pending home sales inched up 0.1 percent in October from September. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index jumped 5.5 percent in September from a year earlier. The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence increased to 107.1 in November, its highest level since July 2007. And first-time jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 26 rose 17,000 to 268,000, a five-month high; the four-week moving average for the week ending Nov. 19 was up 500 to 251,500.

A look ahead

Investors will be biding their time this week as they wait for the Fed’s final meeting of the year on Dec. 13 and 14. In the meantime, they’ll consider updates on the ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Index, the trade balance, factory orders, orders for durable and capital goods, nonfarm productivity, consumer credit and wholesale inventories.

This commentary was prepared specifically for local wealth management advisers by Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company®.

The opinions expressed are as of the date stated on this material and are subject to change. There is no guarantee that the forecasts made will come to pass. This material does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment or security. Information and opinions are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. Sources may include Bloomberg, Morningstar, FactSet and Standard & Poors.

All investments carry some level of risk including the potential loss of principal invested. Indexes and/or benchmarks are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Returns represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance and are not indicative of any specific investment. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Although stocks have historically outperformed bonds, they also have historically been more volatile. Investors should carefully consider their ability to invest during volatile periods in the market. The securities of small capitalization companies are subject to higher volatility than larger, more established companies and may be less liquid. With fixed income securities, such as bonds, interest rates and bond prices tend to move in opposite directions. When interest rates fall, bond prices typically rise and conversely when interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall. This also holds true for bond mutual funds. High yield bonds and bond funds that invest in high yield bonds present greater credit risk than investment grade bonds. Bond and bond fund investors should carefully consider risks such as: interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and inflation risk before investing in a particular bond or bond fund.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index® is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index® (S&P 500®) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Standard & Poor’s offers sector indices on the S&P 500 based upon the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®). This standard is jointly maintained by Standard & Poor’s and MSCI. Each stock is classified into one of 10 sectors, 24 industry groups, 67 industries and 147 sub-industries according to their largest source of revenue. Standard & Poor’s and MSCI jointly determine all classifications. The 10 sectors are Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Health Care, Industrials, Information Technology, Materials, Telecommunication Services and Utilities.

The NASDAQ Composite Index® Stocks traded on the NASDAQ stock market are usually the smaller, more volatile corporations and include many start-up companies.

NASDAQ – National Association of Security Dealers Automated Quotations. The NASDAQ is a computer-operated system owned by the NASD that provides dealers with price quotations for over-the-counter stocks.

The 10-year Treasury Note Rate is the yield on U.S. Government-issued 10-year debt.

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