Letters: Not enough Eagle River Station detail
Vail CO, Colorado
More details, please
We have noted from the start that Trinity/Red, of necessity, has had to talk in generalities. This is obvious, since it has never presented any critical studies or empirical data for the Town of Eagle to “buy into” the deal as a partner; an analogy would be my stock broker telling me that he has this hot deal on some shares that are being offered by a “hedge fund,” and that I should make “lots of money ” trust me.” I could even sell these shares “short” or buy on margin, and pay for them later.
However, I cannot obtain a registered prospectus, since the prospective revenues were all based upon hypotheticals with no empirical experience as a basis.
Eagle citizens are asked to now “invest” in the Eagle River Station project, and share in developer Vince Riggio’s grand vision with only the assurance that “it will be good for you,” or something to that effect. What with the infrastructure that he promises, the cost thereof (speculative in the least), we “investors” could realistically expect no return on our investment for the next 25 years ” this makes the return on a six-month CD or money market account at your local bank seem like a “windfall.”
What is of greater concern is that Vince comes to the table with no commitments or even “letters of intent” from prospective tenants from whom he is to derive these hyped revenues to pay his investors ” the Town of Eagle, taxpayers and bond purchasers ” ergo, he has no idea what the commercial rental market may be in 2011, especially for the would-be tenants that could pay market rates. And therefore, he can only surmise what total income would be if the project were totally leased out by that date.
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Vince needs to conduct a current study of what the commercial rents are in today’s market, and then factor a meaningful analysis to apply to 2011. Have we even seen that study from Vince? It is hard enough to pin-point costs of development, but to definitively arrive at a realistic income figure in the future is tantamount to a “wish book” in the least and “star gazing” at most.
Being somewhat of businessman myself (very modest in comparison to Eagle River Station), I would opine that to generate the necessary revenues for a “payback,” I would need to have employees to work for the unnamed and prospective tenants at the project; I even am astute enough to recognize that labor is a cost factor that enters into return on investment; in other words, were there insufficient labor available, the return would be less, and therefore, my investment would be worth less. Ah!
Economics is a wonderful thing. Query ” does Vince have a study for his projection for the availability of labor in the year 2009 or 2011? We know for a certainty, that there is no labor available for this project in today’s market, and therefore, it would be hard to definitively state what the figure would be four years from today’s starting point of zero. We also know the availability of labor is directly proportional to the amount of wages paid; i.e., high wages can draw existing labor away from competing businesses (Costco, The Everything Store, Alpine Ambiance, Brush Creek Saloon, etc.).
Bottom line, the prospectus that Eagle River Station presents on this investment is rather sparse, hypothetical and “puffed” for the purpose of making a fast sale to a gullible public, or a quick buck from flipping the project once rights are vested.