Vail Daily’s View: Tender shoots of optimism
Vail, CO, Colorado
Hope springs eternal, so in the spirit of rebirth let us be the first to declare that the seeds of the next upturn in our collective economic fortunes are being planted now.
Real estate buyers are looking with more interest, some Realtors tell us. Banks might be edging closer to being able to loan more readily. Visitors will in turn become more confident about vacationing here. The wheel will turn, creakily at first, the right way again.
Summer may well turn out better than the “experts” think at the moment, much like the doom-and-gloomers were stunned when gas prices fell like a rock below $2 a gallon instead of the climb they expected into the $6 and up range. Funny how predictions go.
So, yes, the looming off-season looks uncertain after a down year for ski season and correction in the real estate-development businesses. How much did the Vail Valley overbuild in the go-go skyrocketing period since 2003? Or did you think the boom somehow proceeded at a normal pace?
Our intuition is that just as the boom cycle brought amazing growth in all ways good and bad to the valley these past five, six years, the correction likewise is too deep. Just as surely as hope spurs growth, fear drags the lows lower.
Participate in The Longevity Project
The Longevity Project is an annual campaign to help educate readers about what it takes to live a long, fulfilling life in our valley. This year Kevin shares his story of hope and celebration of life with his presentation Cracked, Not Broken as we explore the critical and relevant topic of mental health.
Looking past the high- and off-season fluctuations, we think equilibrium is up from here.
We’re not experts, of course. Leave that to Goldman Sachs et al and their spotty powers of prognostication.
And maybe this is just the usual tug of spring bringing some irrational exuberance beyond the start of another baseball season and all the hope that flies off the bat this time of year.
But we can definitely feel some tender sproutings of optimism — along with some encouraging movement in the Dow, nibblings of real estate interest, Wells Fargo doing better than expected and layoffs showing signs of lessening to nourish this sense of rebirth.
These sproutings may well grow from here, even through the inevitable chill breezes yet to come.
We’re not going to bank on the economy roaring quite yet, but we’re seeing signs of the spring part of the this recessionary lifetime. And thinking it’s not just those rose-colored sunglasses.
Vail Daily Editorial Board