Looking ahead to the 2017 housing market
September 10, 2016
I have been pleased that prices in my area in the valley have been continuing to climb at a slow but steady rate. I would like to sell and buy a little larger home, so I had decided to wait until next spring, thinking the prices would continue to get a little better, but now I am worried. I read the headlines in the Vail Daily this week that said "Real estate dip continues."
What do you think the market is doing, and relevant to my case, what do you think it will be doing next year?
Dear Prospective Seller,
My first advice is to meet with your trusted, knowledgeable Realtor and get his or her statistics and his or her sense of what is happening in your area and your price range.
Real estate, as referred to in the Vail Daily article, is a composite of the entire valley. Many areas, and lower (or very high) price ranges, have been very active and have experienced prices getting stronger, as you have observed. If you read the whole article by Scott Miller, the consensus of opinion was that August and September are going to be great months — as my team is experiencing — and the dip will be removed by year's end.
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Now, about waiting until next year, that is another story.
First of all, about waiting until next spring, I think you should discuss that with your Realtor. A large number of sellers wait until spring and the market can get heavy on listings at that point. Often, buyers coming from fall through winter have low inventory to choose from, which would be a help for you to get your property sold.
To address the second part of your question about what the market will be doing next spring, there are several variables. The economic sense of well-being may be disturbed for some buyers after the elections, and, of course, there is always talk of the market slowing down if the interest rates are increased.
In addition to these two events, there is forecast for the national real estate market that there is a slow down, or shift, coming.
Our market in this valley is usually 12 to 24 months behind the general market, so even if that does come, we have an excellent chance of doing well at least into next year.
The only thing we can be certain of is that the market always goes in cycles. If you are selling and then buying, then you usually can come out fine in any market. If your property is worth more because your market is up, and you buy in the same time frame and market, then you will be paying more for your next property. If you sell in a down market, then chances are you will make less money, but then again, you can buy your next property for less to balance out your financial position.
It is a game we all play, trying to maximize our net. Just remember, don't put your life, desire and enjoyment on hold to try to outsmart the ever-changing market.
I recommend you talk to your Realtor soon!
Joan Harned is an owner and broker for Keller Williams Mountain Properties and heads up Team Black Bear, her own real estate team. Harned has been selling real estate in Eagle County for 27 years, is a past chairman of the Vail Board of Realtors, past Realtor of the Year, past director on the Great Outdoors Colorado Board and a member of the Luxury and Land Institutes. Contact Harned with your real estate questions at Joan@TeamBlackBear.com, 970-337-7777 and http://www.SkiAndTeeHomes.com.
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