Vail Daily column: Is there a market shift coming? | VailDaily.com
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Vail Daily column: Is there a market shift coming?

Joan Harned

Dear Joan,

Do you foresee a change in the real estate market here in the near future? We live on the Front Range but have always loved Vail. Years ago, we bought a tiny condo in Vail and have loved using it weekends for skiing and summers for hiking and golfing. We have now reached a stage in life where we can afford to get a larger, nicer property and hopefully spend more time in this beautiful valley. I am asking about the market because we think prices have gone up since we started looking last year. We have the ability to wait but are not sure if the market will go up more or if it is close to leveling off, like we are starting to see in the Denver market. Is it worth waiting longer?

Dear Waiting,



I think you have asked two questions. First question, is the market shifting? My answer is, I don’t think so yet in this valley. Some experts say there are signs of shifts on both East and West coasts. I also had some top brokers in the Denver market verify this week that they are seeing a slight change. They said that there have been noticeably fewer offers from the mad rush of multiple offers on properties in recent months in the Denver market. Our valley, once thought of as completely insulated from the raise and fall of urban prices, does eventually become affected by the national market, but often not for 24 to 36 months later.

‘CYCLICAL BUSINESS’



In Gary Keller’s book called “Shift,” he writes, “Real estate is a cyclical business. What goes up must come down. And what is down won’t stay there. You know one is coming. You just don’t know when. They are, in fact, inevitable — shifts happen.” That about sums it up. Our current market is better for sellers in the last two years than it has been in the last seven years. However, it is not near the peak we went to prior to 2008. Could it go down? Yes, of course — we just don’t know when or how far.

The answer to your second question, “Is it worth waiting longer?” is a resounding “no” in my opinion. Why would you wait on the chance you might get a better deal in three years? You would have missed three precious years of enjoyment for you and your family. Also, if you are planning on selling your current condo, then it is a good time to do that now. If you wait until the next home you want goes down in price, then your current condo will sell for less, too. So, the money you save by delaying will be offset somewhat by having to sell your small condo at a lower price at that time.

None of us know what the future brings. We need to work on enjoying every day now is my philosophy. If you have not found a great Realtor to help you find the best deal possible, then now is the time to do that. Good luck to you!



Joan Harned is an owner-broker for Keller Williams Mountain Properties and heads up Team Black Bear, her own real estate team. Harned has been selling real estate in Eagle County for 27 years, is a past chairman of the Vail Board of Realtors, past Realtor of the Year, past director on the Great Outdoors Colorado Board and a member of the Luxury and Land Institutes. Contact Harned with your real estate questions at Joan@TeamBlackBear.com, 970-337-7777 or http://www.SkiAndTeeHomes.com.


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