Vail Daily letter: Not just jumping on the climate change bandwagon
May 26, 2017
In response to Mr. Chastain's response to my letter about climate change: First of all, thank you for spelling my name correctly, I appreciate it. And I'm sorry, Mr. Chastain, but they only give me 500 words in these letters, and it's clearly not enough to explain all of this. But basically, the models I am talking about are not used to predict levels of carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide levels are obtained from measurements and can come from a variety of sources, including ice cores, tree cores and atmospheric measurements.
The models themselves predict how projected increases in carbon dioxide will change our climate, including sea temperatures and levels, humidity and storm frequency, among numerous other factors. Most climate models use a process called "hindcasting" to verify their ability to predict future climate trends, which requires predicting conditions that already exist, based on past conditions, to test the model's likelihood of predicting future events.
And finally, models that have been in existence for some time have been shown to accurately predict conditions, like in the case of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The scientific process, by its very nature, is a conservative one, as are the climate change models, and most are believed to underestimate the potential impacts of increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.
Mr. Chastain also mentions the Petition Project, which is a politically motivated effort that is not supported by climate scientists and has been debunked by Snopes. Thank you to Mr. Harrison for providing the link for this in the comments online. Mr. Chastain, you made another claim, which is to say that I am simply jumping on the bandwagon and claiming the sky is falling because everybody else is doing it. Well, Mr. Chastain, you have clearly never met me.
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